Home/ Blog / Responding to Extreme Events Like the Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
Last week, I have posted a question, “How do we respond to extreme events like the typhoon Yolanda that hit the Philippines in such a catastrophic state?”.
These are some of the responses that I have received from Linkedin:
Chief Executive, Rescue Global, Disaster Reconnaissance NGO
In my opinion, we must always “plan” for those events which are the “reasonable worst case scenarios”. By “plan” in this context, I mean have a response in place, with resources and structure available as part and parcel of normal operating procedures, to be able to deal with such reasonable worst case scenario is. Then, for those black swan / not as likely events which have the capacity to cause extreme damage, we must have a different kind of plan, where we almost certainly not have all of the resources at hand / locally, bit instead have the ability to draw in resources by mutual aid agreements (sharing resources rather than trying to own all of the resources needed), and focussing on ensuring that we have the processes and models on place with which we will recognise, detect and be able to then effectively manage / respond to such events. Where we try to plan in terms of having a stated response to every possible circumstance, I believe we lack flexibility and are naive to think we have considered or can see all of the potential events, their impacts and consequences. This is why I believe that for events which are outside of the “normal” parameters, we must focus on models and methodology, which can be applied in any context, rather than static control measures. The one cautionary note worth considering though on this in relation to super storms such as the one which hit the Philippines… Is that these events may soon become seen as less of an extreme event , and as a more commonly witnessed event. The UN Cluster model seeks to provide flexibility and partner working in these cases, and arguably it does very well. But, events as large as these in terms of numbers impacted, geographic spread, multi national and multi agency actors, present very real challenges above and beyond those “reasonable work case scenarios”, because of their scale, difficulty in rehearsing, and tight timelines in which to respond, often when the situation continues. I am currently leading a Rescue Global Pathfinder team in disaster response operations to the Philippines. So I have some understanding of the challenges. That said, the monumental efforts of so many people in taking these challenges head on, does give one some faith that no matter how hard, systems and processes and methodologies are developing, and will continue to develop in a positive direction. Advances in the use of social media, virtual (online) mappers, and our own pathfinder teams are I think good examples of this.
Risk Analyst di PT Astra Honda Motor
I think this is the reason that the role of RM in company is not limited in identifying risk, but also develop plan, in case risk happen, especially foreseeable disaster, i.e. Typhoon. But when we talk about responding foreseeable disaster, then we talk bout RM role in ensuring the continuity of company, commonly called Business Continuity Mgt and as I know, it’s not covered in ISO 31000.
But, if we based this case on ISO 31000, then it is not about the respond when disaster happen, but the risk identification that is able to make us aware of the existence of a certain risk, so we can develop a plan that can be a guidance for company in responding the risk..
OD Specialist, Strategic Planner, RM Specialist, Gender Specialist, with Masters in Public Ad and a Law Graduate
For me, identification of risks and development of plan should be coupled with clear communication as well. The RM Communication should be properly in placed as well. The catastrophe were already identified by scientists but communicating its implication should be rapidly spread to the language understood by the locals.
RUFRAN FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
Governance-Senior Project Control Specialist/ Major Projects Primavera (P6) Database Administrator at Suncor Energy
@All,
The quantification of the response plan & amount of contingency for any risk identified is a function of the assumptions considered by the risk manager. Using the traditional method of ranging using optimistic, most likely and pessimistic range, there can be a question of how the risk manager or disaster manager defines these values.
The consequence brought about by Haiyan has probably far exceeded the range because the pessimistic value used was not that of a worst case scenario. As such, the preparation and the subsequent response plan were not enough, especially so that in a disaster, time is the essence.
Partner-Business Development at INTERESSE Consultores
Hi Ellany, good question. I think that all entities must have a Crisis Management Plan to respond to catastrophic events, such as typhoons, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, etc. For the Philippines, as well as for many other countries in the world, I am afraid these are no longer “rare” or low probability events. Climate change effects are here now, and human beings are populating areas which were empty not many years ago.
Please review materials related to Crisis Management issues, and you will immediately notice that a Crisis has several phases (before, during and after the crisis), which span through different risk management phases, ranging from Risk Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control. There are many formal Crisis Management strategies, in order to create corporate plans for each type of crisis. Just google “Crisis Management” and you will surely find tons of materials which can be valuable for you.
In the end, the idea is to plan for the worst and hope for the best. There’s really nothing you can do to control these events, but there are definitely many things you can (and must) do in order to minimize their effects if they happen.
Good luck!
RUFRAN FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
Governance-Senior Project Control Specialist/ Major Projects Primavera (P6) Database Administrator at Suncor Energy
Hi @Jess,
I agree with your statement that in a lot of places such weather events are no longer rare. In fact, in the case of the Philippines, it’s been like that for decades. For some reason, the government seems to be still surprised that such a thing happened.
I have decided to look at the history in the last few decades and as expected, the risk of typhoons are well known and documented. Around 19 tropical cyclones or storms enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility in a typical year and of these usually 6 to 9 make landfall. The Philippines lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which causes the country to have frequent seismic and volcanic activity. Much larger numbers of earthquakes of smaller magnitude occur very regularly due to the meeting of major tectonic plates in the region (Colleen, A Sexton, 2006).
According to Wikipedia (2013), approximately 18 major earthquakes as high as 7.5 Richter Scale damaged the country from 2001 to present. That’s 1.5 Earthquake a year with an average 6.44 intensity.
If these are given for such a relatively long time, and is part of the experience of the Filipino people and their government, the next step should not be hard to formulate. The probability of a typhoon coming and earthquake occuring can be placed at 100%. The only thing that varies is the intensity, speed, velocity, and other critical attributes of the disturbance influencing the size of the consequence. A range can be formulated to establish the right response plan and contingency.
Sources:
Colleen A. Sexton (2006). Philippines in Pictures. Twenty-First Century Books. ISBN 978-0-8225-2677-3. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
Wikipedia (2013).List of Earthquakes in the Philippines.Retrieved fromhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_the_Philippines
President at Hazard Control Systems Inc.
The CSA Z731-03 emergency response standard makes an important distinction between a plan and a procedure. For some obvious events (such as a large ammonia release if we have a large tank of ammonia on site) we can make an event specific plan supported by appropriate response procedures that define step-by-step how we respond to the ammonia release. Otherwise we need a “buffet of procedures” (and resources) to draw from that can be used in any possible event such as an evacuation procedure, a fire response procedure, a spill response procedure, a medical response procedure, and other relevant procedures for the kinds of hazards that may be relevant to your location and activities (e.g. if you are in a flood zone then a water rescue procedure would be appropriate for your facility, but not if you are located far from water on the highest ground for miles around – don’t waste your resources on a rescue boat). So you no longer need to have a specific plan for a 747 crashing into your site and a separate plan for a Cessna crashing into your site – when the event happens the incident commander draws from the “buffet of procedures” after doing his/her situational assessment and creates an “action plan of the moment” that will evolve as the emergency situation evolves stitching the relevant procedures together as required until the situation is under control (perhaps prioritizing the medical response for the injured and spill response for the fuel and putting the fire response on alert then changing the priority to fire response if the fuel ignites). If you overlooked the fact that you are in a flood zone and did not ensure that water rescue resources were on hand or available then the Incident Commander is “up a creek without a paddle” so to speak when they realize that the injured people in the Cessna that crashed can’t be reached without a boat. So the secret is to identify all possible hazards and ensure procedures and resources are in place or available, which allows a qualified Incident Commander to mix and match procedures as needed to create an evolving action plan for (virtually) any extreme event that is put in front of them. For those events that are way beyond the resources that you are able to have available (e.g. neutralizing a shooter with an automatic weapon) then the plan is dig out your evacuation procedure and “run for your life.”
Formation de chef de projets informatiques chez Technofutur TIC
What can de added ?
Most community have a cluster of emergency plan that prepare to some sort of possible (and probable !) catastrophe. Seveso Plan are well know in petrochimic industries. but it can be anything from aircrash plan in airport cities to power shortage in hospital.
the following points are somewhat overlooked :
– first, you cannot prepare to a risk you don’t know exist. it’s obvious. what is less obvious is that scientists of all kind DO warn of possible catastrophe… and get silenced.
New Orleans flood, Tremor in Italy and Pearl Harbour bombing have been predicted for years. and the whistleblowers have been punished and disgraced. Some of them have been rehabilited… posthumously.
– Public image and politic are part of a catastrophe plan. For a positive example, see how firefighters and new york finests are seen since 9/11. For a negative example, think of the POTUS for the same 9/11.
– a never used plan will rust and grip. every enterprises and administrations have backups of their datas. But most It manager will be embarrased when they will discover that backups is worthless without a well know recovery procedure. it is at that time that IT managers discover that their backup are unreadable or plain empty.
– a catastrophe is a human affair. Nobody care of a mega-asteroid falling of tugunska toundra. But a tempest over Petaoochnock USA will imply scenes where survival lead to all sort of uncivilized behavior. there is a mafioso in every survivalist. Police and Army, but also judges and social inspectors should be on the ground at the start of the emergy plan.
– lack of communication is a hazard in itself. containing info to minimize panic (and political bashing) is a good way to lead to rumors, all-around anger and unwise moves. as army officers know, the deadliest special op soldiers are the one with radio and googles.
hope it help.
Senior Auditor, OIG, Federal Reserve Board
In my view, risk management is about preparedness, not prediction. So, in these situations, preparedness is key. It’s difficult to predict these situations, but being prepared will help to deal with these extreme situations.
RUFRAN FRAGO, P.Eng, PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
Governance-Senior Project Control Specialist/ Major Projects Primavera (P6) Database Administrator at Suncor Energy
@Saurab,
I agree with you that preparedness is critical specially in the case of the Philippine government in retrospect of super typhoon Yolanda (international code name Haiyan). However, I disagree with your statement that it is difficult to predict that situation or events. If you go back on the earlier thread, I have pointed to ge statistical probability of storms/ typhoons and even earthquakes in the country. There is no need to predict. Since the certainty of occurring is 100 percent, it is already a fact. If this is so, establishing the appropriate response plan through the identification of right contingency measure remains.
Formation de chef de projets informatiques chez Technofutur TIC
Sure, Ellany.
Information is not a mere commodity, it’s a need. When official informations are missing, for whatever reason it may be, the gap is filled with rumors and urban legends.
In volcanic eruption, the danger is not the lava (as most think) but the poisonous gas and the hot cinder. People escaping the progress of the lava can and often do run straight into the direction where the wind push gas and cinder.
An official information source seen as suspect (couter-wise or politically charged) can be the start point of a disaster.
Tchernobyl authority calmed the people with message “all is under control” spread by mobile hi-speakers on cars. The movies taken by citizen of this moment was corrupted by radioactivity already !
French government insist that the radioactive mist didn’t cross French borders. (leading to the joke : “the mist didn’t have its passport”).
Today, nobody believe official messages around the Fukushima incident. The displaced population is seen as plague-carrier by the common Japanese citizen. Behind the ecologic disaster is hidden a social disaster.
The point is that the authorities often lack the correct information to be transmit. Most of the common indicators are useless in an extraordinary situation. Noise and Data are not easily separated, less authorities already have a network of experienced observers.
Armies trained their own peculiar observers. But some institution ( said C.E. ) have “information officers” who inquire of people and event going in their 450+ building. When a problem (or a suspicion of problem) occurre, they can give the name of the intern specialist to call or the reference in the library to consult.
All in all. A Quality Manager have to do the information officer job. Who else ?
ERM at Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo)
In the case of Haiyan, warnings were given as early as more than 2 weeks before the event – it was not about uncertainty (risk) but the potential magnitude of the impact when it happens. So, it was more about contingency and crisis management.
Owner, Red Mountain Consulting, LLC
The more important question is this. Are extreme events changing in frequency – given warming (cause aside – physics goddess does not care why) storms if this type will be more severe or powerful if you prefer. Like hurricanes & tropical storms & tornados in the US or early, severe winter storms or Ark-express events.
As Dirty Harry would have said, “Do you feel lucky”.
Were I looking at facility locations targetting low wage, low regulatory locations with readily bribable officials – locate above previous highwater marks + 10, no mission critical equipment, emergency power below the 3rd floor (high water mark + 3 stories) & footings & foundations that can stand upto 1000 yr storms.
Take a page out of Henry Ford’s play book pay well; your staff on location are your most valuable asset.=
CEO & Principal Consultant | Author of the Protect-Biz® Risk Management Planning Process | Process Improvement
Why would a typhoon in the Philippines be considered unlikely? The fact that it occurred in November is a bit unlikely; the fact that it was on the high end of powerful is a bit unlikely. But that does not invalidate prudent preparations by government and non-government organizations. The answer to the question seems obvious to me, albeit recognizing such preparations are a major challenge to that part of the world.
If you are asking how to get them prepared in spite of their lack of economic, industrial and management resources, now that is a problem the laws of economics probably cannot solve.
Managing Consultant Trainer Cascade Enterprise
Facts of the situation, KNOWN with ample warning, CERTAINTY of the event does not matter the time of the typhoon, maybe a bit uncertain is the magnitude however as the date approaches the magnitude was known…..I can only conclude that is an risk which is beyond ones control…..uncontrollable risk hence measures to mitigate the damages. I am sadden with such a catastrophic event, hope they will recover soonest.
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